Work Package 3: Scenarios for 100% Renewable Electricity in Austria
Work Package 3 covers the definition of three energy scenarios for Austria. Visions of alternative futures (exploratory scenarios) up to 2030 will be drafted as starting point for the model simulations. A community of experts from different disciplines (most notably engineering, economics, energy planning, energy law) and stakeholders (from public administration, interest groups and social partners as well as NGOs), covering both academics and practitioners, will be involved in a Delphi approach in which the scenarios will be developed. The participants will be selected to cover a broad range of expertise as well as different views. The Delphi technique was developed as a forecasting tool under uncertainty by the RAND Corporation in the early 1960s (Häder 2009). It is a systematic, multi-stage survey method with feedback and is often used as a tool to assess future events, trends or technological developments. Each Delphi is based on an expert panel and aims at integrating the judgments of experts from different disciplines or with different viewpoints. In START2030 we will combine a classical Delphi approach with a Group Delphi (Schulz and Renn 2009): During a project workshop, the experts and stakeholders involved in the Delphi will discuss the issues covered to ensure that the experts have a common understanding of the survey for the second Delphi round that will be conducted online.
The basic assumption comes from the Austrian Climate and Energy Strategy (#mission2030) and the Austrian National Energy and Climate Plan (NEKP), where a 100% coverage of the electricity supply by renewable energies is postulated until 2030. The scenarios will depict a range of different futures but share one key assumption, i.e. that the share of 100% RES-E in Austria is achieved in 2030. To reach this target different pathways are possible, depending on several parameters. First, this refers to which RES contribute to the overall target. To quantify the possible contributions a potential analysis will be performed based on existing research and own calculations. The second key parameter is the development of electricity demand that will be influenced e.g. the development of e-mobility, the use of heat pumps, energy efficiency improvements and the future role of prosumers. Further general factors include population development, economic growth or the development of the fuel prices reviewed in Work Package 1.
In the Delphi, the key parameters of the RES-E scenarios in terms of the shares of different technologies and the development of electricity demand for Austria will be specified. In the final task, these parameters will be linked to policies. This is done in a two step-methodology. In a first step the impact of cost structures and on the price of electricity will be assessed. This analysis will allow us to quantify potential deviations of certain parametrisations from the equilibrium of cost optimization. From that, in a second step, we shall derive necessary adjustments in cost structures, based on the present classical feed-in-tariff promotion also new market-near approaches will be taken into account.