Work Package 6: Model Simulations
In Work Package 6 model simulations will be conducted to assess the effects of policy scenarios developed in Work Package 3 on the different household types and on the requirements of the electricity grid and electricity generation. The model analysis will show which household types are most vulnerable to the changing environment, in terms of e.g. decreasing consumption or reduced employment opportunities. In addition, the aggregate economic effects (i.e. changes in GDP, value added, and employment) as well as changes in energy flows and GHG emissions until 2030 will be reported. Moreover, the additional investments for the resulting power plant park and the necessary electricity grid expansions are calculated as well as the changes in electricity price (as a result of the zonal price model) and the energy generation per power plant type (as a result of the redispatch model). Special emphasis will be put on options to support the expansion of private PV installations (prosumers). Furthermore, we conduct sensitivity analysis by altering the most important parameters. This allows us to investigate the magnitude of possible bandwidths connected to the policy scenarios under different developments (as energy prices).
Flow chart of the simulations with the combined model system